不同气候条件下华北粮食主产区地下水保障能力时空特征与机制
投稿时间:2016-07-30  修订日期:2016-07-30  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
王电龙 中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所 sxndwdl@163.com 
张光辉 中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:华北平原是我国小麦、玉米等粮食作物主产区,农业灌溉以开采地下水为主。灌溉用水及地下水超采程度与气候变化密切相关。应用地学统计分析和彭曼-蒙蒂斯等方法,基于大气环流模式预测的2016—2050年降水量和气温相关数据,开展了华北粮食主产区地下水保障能力时空特征与机制研究,取得了如下进展和创新成果:气候变化对农业区地下水保障能力具有较大影响,是灌溉农业合理开发地下水的重要约束条件。降水偏丰年份,华北粮食主产区地下水保障能力处于“较高保障”状态,评价指数大于80FfFf;平水年份,处于“基本保障”状态,评价指数均值为54FfFf;偏枯年份,为“较低保障”状态,评价指数均值为45FfFf。在RCP4.5气候情景下,太行山前的豫北平原地下水保障能力处于“较高保障”状态,燕山山前平原为“基本保障”状态,太行山前冀中平原、华北平原中部的鲁北、豫北平原和东部滨海平原处于“较低保障”状态,中部的冀中平原为“难以保障”状态。
中文关键词:地下水  农业区保障能力  气候变化  农作物需水量  主控因素
 
Groundwater ensure capacity spatial - temporal characteristics and mechanism in main grain producing areas of North China Plain under different climatic conditions
Abstract:North China Plain (NCP)is the main winter wheat and summer maize production area in china, and groundwater is the main irrigation source in this area。Irrigation water and groundwater over-exploitation density is closely related to climate change. So, It is of great significance to study the groundwater ensure extent in different climatic conditions. In this paper, aiming at the problems which the irrigation agriculture dependent and influence on groundwater is continuous rising, focus on further understanding groundwater ensure extent under climate change condition of next 30 years. Utilizing the methods of statistical analysis, penman formula, based on GCM predicted data of precipitation and air temperature data in 2011-2060, carried out the study of spatial and temporal characteristic and influence mechanism groundwater ensure extent. The main results as follows: (1) Climate change has significance influence on grain crop irrigation water requirement in NCP, and there is a great difference in different hydrological years. the reasonable utilization of this difference has great potential for water saving. In wet year, the main distribution area of winter wheat irrigation water demand index(IDI) was in between 0.6 and 0.7, and summer maize was in between 0.3 and 0.4. In normal flow years, the main distribution area of winter wheat IDI was in between 0.7 and 0.8, and summer maize was in between 0.4 and 0.5. under dry years, the main distribution area of winter wheat IDI was in between 0.8 and 0.85, and the summer maize was in between 0.6 and 0.7. (2)The influence climate impact on groundwater level in different regions is obviously different ,which is closely related to the regional difference of the regional hydrogeological conditions. In the piedmont plain, in the combined climate conditions of wet - wet years, the groundwater level years will rebound sharply. In the combined climate conditions of normal flow - dry years, dry - dry year, the groundwater level years will significantly decline. In the Central Plains, under the combined climate conditions of normal flow-dry years, the groundwater level has the tendency of declining, in the combined condition of normal flow -normal flow year, the groundwater level can be recovered to the level of the beginning of the year. In the coastal plain, under the combined climate conditions of wet - wet years, the groundwater level was slightly downward trend, in the condition of normal flow- dry year, groundwater level will significantly decline. (3) Climate change has a great influence on groundwater ensure extent, and it is an important constraint for the rational exploitation of groundwater in irrigation agriculture. In wet years, the groundwater ensure extent of NCP is 81FfFf , is belong to higher extent. In normal flow year, the groundwater ensure extent is 54FfFf, is the state of basic ensure extent. In dry years, the groundwater ensure extent is 45FfFf, is under inferior state. (4) Under the climate scenarios of RCP4.5, In Taihang Piedmont of North Henan plain, the groundwater ensure extent is in higher state, Yanshan Piedmont plain is under basic ensure extent, Taihang Mountain of Hebei Plain, Henan central plain and the coastal plain is in a state of inferior, and the Hebei central plain is under the state of difficult to ensure. Innovation point: Prominent the mechanism research of climate change and agriculture exploitation impact on groundwater ensure extent. Understanding the process, characteristics and law of groundwater evolution in NCP main grain producing area with the concept of system, Utilizing the methods of dynamic viewpoint and nonlinear dynamic theory, for the first time ,clarified the characteristics and development trends of groundwater ensure extent of different regions of NCP in different hydrological years.
keywords:Groundwater  ensure extent  climate change  irrigation water requirement  driving factor
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